Anthropogenic Global Warming VI -- Milankovitch was Right !

Milankovitch Cycles II -- My prediction of the next Ice Age

Today is Christmas Eve — 3 days past the Winter Solstice. Consequently, I’m sure that EVERYONE, just like me, is only thinking about one thing: the Earth’s Orbit. How apropos that I post this today.

In this post I provide a very clear confirmation of the Milankovitch Cycles (variations in the Earth’s Orbit causing the Ice Ages and brief Inter-Glacial periods, one of which now [the Holocene] we are fortunate to exist in), and confidently predict the Advent of the next Ice-Age.

I created several models to predict the next Ice Age. I began with the assumption that the Milankovitch Cycles are, in Hays et al.’s words, the Pacemaker of the Ice-Ages, from their seminal 1976 work published in Science:

Variations in the Earth’s Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages (

I used only 3 frequencies (i.e., the frequencies for changes in the Earth Orbit’s Ellipticity, Obliquity, and Precession [and threw in 3 additional frequencies, the sums or differences of 2 of these frequencies or periods {non-linear or linear effects, respectively}]). So, with 3 frequencies, and 3 other frequencies derived-exactly from these frequencies, I came up with the Model shown in Figure 1 (merely 3 independent variables, and three others based upon them, to explain very-well 4,000 Temperature DATA points from the Vostok Ice-Core DATA).

Figure 1. One of the Models that I created using the Milankovitch cycles to predict the Next Ice Age. The Vostok Ice Core Temperature DATA were filtered with a 1/2,300 year single-pole low-pass filter, which is 1/10th the frequency of the highest frequency Milankovitch Cycle (i.e., The Precession of Equinoxes, or the Zodiac [welcome to the Age of Aquarius, the Water-Bearer], about 23,000 years). My Model is in very good agreement with the conclusions of Hays et al. 44 years ago:

  • My Model has an R-Squared of 84%, i.e., 84% of the Temperature Changes (dependent variable) with frequencies below 1/2,300 years can be explained by the Milankovitch Cycles (independent variable). Hays’ et al. claimed “Over the frequency range 10^-4 to 10^-6 cycle per year, climatic variance of these records is concentrated in three discrete spectral peaks at the periods of 23,000, 42,000 and approximately 100,000 years. The peaks correspond to the dominant periods of the earth’s solar orbit, and contain respectively about 10, 25, and 50% of the climatic variance.” OK, Hays et al. got a total of about (10 + 25 + 50% =) 85%, and I only got about 84%. Of course I only spent a few days working on my Model and could certainly tweak it a bit and easily surpass him for bragging rights, if so motivated.

  • From my Model, I can confidently predict (see Fig. 1) that the next Ice-Age will begin any day (i.e., any few-thousands-of-years-from) now. Hays’ et al. claimed: “A model of future climate based on the observed orbital-climate relationships … predicts that the long-term trend over the next several thousand years is toward extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation”.

So, if Milankovitch and Hays et. al. have not been completely vindicated, I now, with the powers invested in me by myself, bestow my holy Imprimatur to their Work.

I grant no such Imprimatur to Al Gore or the majority of what is today called “Climate Science”, most of which is not Science (i.e. DATA) but rather Stories or Narratives (Models with countless variables that are not meaningfully-tested against past DATA but confidently-predict future-disaster, the more-disastrous the better !).

I furthermore, especially grant no such Imprimatur to any of the “Co-Vid Science” Hysteria being spewed by the MSM or our politicians. Have you yet signed the Barrington Declaration ?


Happy Holidays —

Hope you enjoy these Holidays with your friends and relatives, and not Hibernating, Quarantining, Socially-Isolating, Locking-Down, or Mask-Wearing.