The sodium-ion battery analysis is particulary compelling. Making batteries 3.3x heavier but orders of magnitde cheaper for stationary applications is a brillant tradeoff. Your point about Buckmister Fuller's World Grid concept being technically feasible now is fascinating, and China's existing 3,300 km UHV transmission line proves its viability. The distributed generation model really does make the grid far more resilint than people realize.
About 3 decades ago, solar cells were made with "cast-off" silicon wafers made for silicon chip production. People said, "the only reason Si PV is cost effective today is because they use "cast-off" wafers from the electronics industry; when they've used up all this supply, the cost of Si-wafer PV will become unaffordable." Instead, what happened, when the PV industry became a bigger user of Si-wafers than the electronics industry, the price of crystalline silicon dropped by a couple of orders of magnitude as it went into mass production.
Chips and Solar Cells are made from wafers of pure Silicon.
It's not the purity of the silicon that's important, but rather the number of defects in the crystalline lattice. Chips need low defects; solar cells can tolerate a much higher number of defects. At one point there was "solar-grade" silicon, and in the past PV was mostly made from polycrystalline SI; today virtually all cells are monocrystalline. I don't know today how big a difference there is between the Si for electronics and solar. Today Solar is a much bigger market for Si than the electronics industry.
Mono-Crystalline Si has gotten so cheap, it may not even any longer be the top-most item in the BOM (Bill of Materials) for solar cells.
I believe the silicon ingots are still round cylinders. The fact that PV companies cut the round wafers into squares tells me that other things (e.g., the aluminum frame) may be more important than the Silicon in the BOM.
Well, after Oxygen, Silicon is the most abundant (by mass) element in the earth's crust.
Silver is a "Super Nova" element, and its abundance is about 1/100 millionth that of Si. I conclude that Ag is a good investment, but, as it becomes too expensive, people will find other solutions for non-corrosive high-conductivity applications, perhaps aluminum alloys (Al is the third most abundant element in the Earth's crust, after Oxygen and Silicon.
Potentially other metals can be used, but their efficiency will be lower (this is why silver is used), necessitating more ultra pure quartz for the same installed capacity.
Do you have an answer to my question; is there enough silver?
Mining and drilling tech is still in its infancy. We're only now beginning to manufacture pulsed laser drill heads. Small ones. Future generations will unleash levels of devastation upon Earth's crust that would make our contemporary tree huggers blush. And the world will be awash in minerals of every sort.
Beauty and value are self-defined, Tim! Or so some heavily-bearded fellow once told me when I was a younger man. If you look upon the universe and see "peak" majesty in the motion of the stars, then maybe you don't care at all about what happens to our silly rock planet. If, on the other hand, the birds and bees tickle your mind parts most, then maybe heavy industry is atrocious. Me? I like intelligent civilization, it's technologies and it's industrial machinations. It just doesn't get any cooler than that, for me. I can live with a few missing mountain tops and some extra canyons if that's what it takes to keep the story of humanity moving forward, toward greater technological, scientific and industrial advancement. Because that story is gripping. Insofar as unconscious matter exists without "meaning" is this universe, we might be the only source of meaning in the entire galaxy. And we're probably a razor's edge from extinction, too. Cliffhanger moment!
The higher conductivity, reflectivity and emissivity of Ag are advantages over Al.
The mobility of Ag atoms into the Si is a disadvantage of Ag compared to Al.
The PV market will grow by another factor of about 5, when we are producing about 2 NPPE/day. In 2024 the PV industry constituted about 20% of the industrial market for Silver. As the cost of silver becomes significant in the Bill of Materials, engineers will be motivated to decrease its use and find alternatives. I doubt the availability of silver will ever limit the production of PV.
Most silver today does not come from "silver mines", but rather is a by-product of copper mining. Thus, as the demand for copper increases, so too will the supply of silver, especially if the price of silver continues to increase.
The sodium-ion battery analysis is particulary compelling. Making batteries 3.3x heavier but orders of magnitde cheaper for stationary applications is a brillant tradeoff. Your point about Buckmister Fuller's World Grid concept being technically feasible now is fascinating, and China's existing 3,300 km UHV transmission line proves its viability. The distributed generation model really does make the grid far more resilint than people realize.
Yes --
When I think of a world-wide grid, I think of his geodesic domes.
Is there enough electronics grade quartz, and silver for all those solar panels?
Crystalline Silicon used to be very expensive.
About 3 decades ago, solar cells were made with "cast-off" silicon wafers made for silicon chip production. People said, "the only reason Si PV is cost effective today is because they use "cast-off" wafers from the electronics industry; when they've used up all this supply, the cost of Si-wafer PV will become unaffordable." Instead, what happened, when the PV industry became a bigger user of Si-wafers than the electronics industry, the price of crystalline silicon dropped by a couple of orders of magnitude as it went into mass production.
The purity of the quartz is the problem, not the amount of silicon. There is a limited amount of ultra pure quartz.
Quartz is SiO2, silicon dioxide.
Chips and Solar Cells are made from wafers of pure Silicon.
It's not the purity of the silicon that's important, but rather the number of defects in the crystalline lattice. Chips need low defects; solar cells can tolerate a much higher number of defects. At one point there was "solar-grade" silicon, and in the past PV was mostly made from polycrystalline SI; today virtually all cells are monocrystalline. I don't know today how big a difference there is between the Si for electronics and solar. Today Solar is a much bigger market for Si than the electronics industry.
Mono-Crystalline Si has gotten so cheap, it may not even any longer be the top-most item in the BOM (Bill of Materials) for solar cells.
I believe the silicon ingots are still round cylinders. The fact that PV companies cut the round wafers into squares tells me that other things (e.g., the aluminum frame) may be more important than the Silicon in the BOM.
Well, after Oxygen, Silicon is the most abundant (by mass) element in the earth's crust.
Silver is a "Super Nova" element, and its abundance is about 1/100 millionth that of Si. I conclude that Ag is a good investment, but, as it becomes too expensive, people will find other solutions for non-corrosive high-conductivity applications, perhaps aluminum alloys (Al is the third most abundant element in the Earth's crust, after Oxygen and Silicon.
Potentially other metals can be used, but their efficiency will be lower (this is why silver is used), necessitating more ultra pure quartz for the same installed capacity.
Do you have an answer to my question; is there enough silver?
Mining and drilling tech is still in its infancy. We're only now beginning to manufacture pulsed laser drill heads. Small ones. Future generations will unleash levels of devastation upon Earth's crust that would make our contemporary tree huggers blush. And the world will be awash in minerals of every sort.
That is pretty much, now that I think about it, a Trivial Statement of Fact.
Couldn't we say that pretty much EVERYTHIGN is still in its infancy ?
I that supposed to make me feel good, or bad ?
Beauty and value are self-defined, Tim! Or so some heavily-bearded fellow once told me when I was a younger man. If you look upon the universe and see "peak" majesty in the motion of the stars, then maybe you don't care at all about what happens to our silly rock planet. If, on the other hand, the birds and bees tickle your mind parts most, then maybe heavy industry is atrocious. Me? I like intelligent civilization, it's technologies and it's industrial machinations. It just doesn't get any cooler than that, for me. I can live with a few missing mountain tops and some extra canyons if that's what it takes to keep the story of humanity moving forward, toward greater technological, scientific and industrial advancement. Because that story is gripping. Insofar as unconscious matter exists without "meaning" is this universe, we might be the only source of meaning in the entire galaxy. And we're probably a razor's edge from extinction, too. Cliffhanger moment!
Thanks for that one!
Kind of puts things into perspective!
The higher conductivity, reflectivity and emissivity of Ag are advantages over Al.
The mobility of Ag atoms into the Si is a disadvantage of Ag compared to Al.
The PV market will grow by another factor of about 5, when we are producing about 2 NPPE/day. In 2024 the PV industry constituted about 20% of the industrial market for Silver. As the cost of silver becomes significant in the Bill of Materials, engineers will be motivated to decrease its use and find alternatives. I doubt the availability of silver will ever limit the production of PV.
Most silver today does not come from "silver mines", but rather is a by-product of copper mining. Thus, as the demand for copper increases, so too will the supply of silver, especially if the price of silver continues to increase.