Anthropogenic Global Warming IV

Randomness ... Uncertainty ...

It is pretty well accepted (I could joke and say that 97% of Scientists agree) that periodic changes in the Earth’s orbit, or the Milankovich Cycles, are responsible for the periodic Ice Ages/Inter-Glacials. This was first proposed by the Serbian Engineer/Physicist Milankovich in the 1920’s, and first verified by Paleoceanographers (that name won’t be on the test) using Mud Core Data in 1976 in a Science publication with the appropriate title:

Variations in the Earth’s Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages (https://www.whoi.edu/cms/files/hays76sci_268464.pdf).

In my next post I’ll show a model I developed based upon the Milankovich cycles that agrees pretty well with all the past cycles and consequently can probably pretty well predict future Ice-Ages and Inter-Glacials.

Periodic variations in the Earth’s orbit occur with periods of 100’s to 1000’s of Centuries. There are, however, also short-term (100 year) quite large, apparently-random, changes in the Earth’s Temperature that no one can predict as shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1. Histogram of Century-to-Century changes in the Earth’s Temperature over the last thousand CENTURIES. The Horizontal Axis is how much the average Earth’s Temperature changed Century-to-Century. The Vertical Axis is how often changes of a certain size occur. The Orange-Red line is a Gaussian fit to the Histogram. The big purple square is the change in the average Earth’s Temperature over the last Century ending 2020. The plot was created using the Vostok Ice-Core Data and free open-source LibreOffice Calc.

The Gaussian fit to the data SCREAMS at me: RANDOM !!!!

Since I don’t believe that the Earth’s orbit changes randomly on a century time-scale, I consequently conjecture that the source of this Randomness is the Sun, or “Space Weather”, or changes in the Earth’s Magnetic Field. Maybe someday we’ll also have models that can predict these short-term (short term being Centuries) changes in the Earth’s Temperature.

The change in the Average Temperature of the Earth over the last Century, shown with the large Purple Square in Fig. 1, is completely insignificant — 0.14 Standard Deviations.

So, while everyone (e.g. Mainstream Media, Politicians, Al Gore and Greta) is/are SCREAMING at us about unprecedented warming, the DATA say that this is simply not true. If in the next century the Temperature averaged over the entire Century were to change by 2 oC (4 oF) that would be semi-significant. If it were to change by 3 oC (6 oF), then feel free to wake me up from the dead and I’ll say, “OK, while not Unprecedented, it is Significant”. (Of course if people will be measuring Temperature as today they are fraudulently “measuring” CoVid “Cases”, then please just leave me in peace).

As I was writing this Post, I was also staring out the window and watching the deer nibbling. (See Fig. 2). I think with all of Nashoba’s pee around here, they feel safe from all the Hunters in the forest. Now, where’s my gun when I really need it !

Figure 2. What I get to watch since I don’t have a TV.