Summary of some of my Analyses of the Vostok Ice Core Data

An outline

Prologue

I am organizing and preparing for publication some of my analyses of the Vostok Ice Core Data¹,². Some of these analyses I’ve never seen before, anywhere. And, no, as I’ve said before, I will not publish in a “Scientific Journal” but rather find a website with a much larger reach. Any suggestions are welcome.

Substack E-Mail limitations will prevent me from including all the figures, charts, and graphs that will be in the final edit as a Post; I provide hyperlinks to previous posts which have some of these figures. When published I shall provide a link.

Introduction: The Earth’s Climate

Recently (the past 1% of the Earth’s lifetime), the Earth has been slowly cooling. The Earth has cooled about 15 C over the last 50 million years, and about 5 C over the last 5 million years. About 3 million years ago the Earth entered into an age of periodic Glaciation. For the past 1 million years the period of Glaciation has been about 100,000 years with brief Interglacial periods of about 15,000 - 20,000 years in length where atmospheric CO2 rises, the ice retreats, and life flourishes. We are presently towards the end of the present Holocene Interglacial period which began about 12,000 years ago.

Below I summarize some of my findings from doing simple analyses of the Vostok Ice Core Data which span that last 800,000, or 0.8 million years, of the Earth’s climate³.

The Earth Continues to Cool

If I extrapolate the shortening length of the Interglacial periods, perhaps in 2 to 3 million years we shall have no interglacial periods.

CO2 lags Temperature

The Vostok Data show that during the last million years, about when we began ice ages with a periodicity of about 100,000 years, atmospheric CO2 lags Temperature (i.e., changes in the Earth’s temperature cause changes in the the atmospheric CO2 level, not vice-versa).

• On average, CO2 lags Temperature by about 800 years. But this average doesn’t tell the whole story:

• Most of the Earth’s CO2 is stored in the oceans. When the Earth heats up (e.g., coming out of an Ice Age), the CO2 comes out of the oceans very quickly, in hundreds of years; however, when the Earth cools down, it takes about 10,000 - 20,000 years for the CO2 to diffuse back into the oceans. High CO2 levels never prevented the onset of Ice Ages in the past, so don’t expect anything different in the future.

The Earth has been much warmer than today in just the past “few” years

In the previous Interglacial period, the Eemian, about 100,000 years ago, temperatures were as much as 5 C higher than at present. In the present Holocene Interglacial period, temperatures have been 2 - 3 C higher than today. Temperatures were higher just 2,000 years ago during the Roman Warming period.

The Earth’s Temperature is Remarkably Stable

There are random changes (probably caused by random variations in the Sun’s output) in the Earth’s century-to-century average temperature with a Standard Deviation of about 1.2 C. The average change in the Earth’s temperature over the last century has only been about 1/4 of a Standard Deviation, i.e., statistically insignificant.

Real Science: Vostok Ice Core Data confirm the findings of the Mud Core Data confirming Milankovitch’s Theory that variations in the Earth’s Orbit cause the Ice Ages.

A century ago Milankovitch, a Serbian Engineer, HYPOTHESIZED that Ice-Ages would be periodic and caused by 3 periodic variations in the Earth’s orbit (Eccentricity [about 100,000 years], Obliquity [about 40,000 years], and Axial Precision or Wobble [about 25,000 years]).

A half century ago, in 1976, using Mud Core Data, Hays et al. published their seminal work in Science, confirming as an established THEORY, Milankovitch’s proposal:

Variations in the Earth’s Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages (https://www.whoi.edu/cms/files/hays76sci_268464.pdf)

They found that

“Over the frequency range 10^-4 to 10^-6 cycle per year, climatic variance of these records is concentrated in three discrete spectral peaks at the periods of 23,000, 42,000 and approximately 100,000 years. The peaks correspond to the dominant periods of the earth’s solar orbit, and contain respectively about 10, 25, and 50% of the climatic variance.”

Hays et al. used Fourier Analysis to show that about 85% of the variations in the Earth’s temperature in this frequency range can be accounted for by just 3 frequencies, which just happen to be the frequencies of variations in the Earth’s orbit.

I used a completely separate data set, the Vostok Ice Core Data, and showed that 84% of the Vostock Ice Core Temperature Data can be reproduced using these same 3 frequencies as shown in Fig. 1. I used the reverse process: instead of taking the Time-Data and converting it into the Frequency Data using Fourier Analysis as did Hays et al. with the Mud Core Data, I took Frequency Data (it’s nice to know the answer before you start) and converted them into the Time Domain to reproduce the Vostok Ice Core Temperature Data.

Figure 1⁴. One of the Models that I created using the Milankovitch cycles to predict the Next Ice Age. The Vostok Ice Core Temperature DATA were filtered with a 1/2,300 year single-pole low-pass filter, which is 10 times the frequency of the highest frequency Milankovitch Cycle (i.e., The Precession of Equinoxes, or the Zodiac [welcome to the Age of Aquarius, the Water-Bearer], about 1/23,000 years). My Model is in very good agreement with the conclusions of Hays et al. 48 years ago.

We can now say that Milankovitch’s HYPOTHESIS has become a well-tested and established THEORY.

Some Conclusions

If, as most enlightened and educated people, you get your worldview from NPR (or any other legacy/mainstream media outlet), you have a number of false beliefs due to the MisInformation and deliberate DisInformation published by these media. Let me dispel a few of them:

• No, the Earth is not “burning up”. It is cooling. Always has been and always will be.

• No, it’s not true that the Earth has never been hotter.

• No, it is not true that we are seeing “unprecedented existential” changes in the Earth’s temperature. The Earth’s temperature today is remarkably stable, especially compared to the past.

• And, finally, Al Gore’s wild-ass-guess-HYPOTHESIS that CO2 caused the Temperature changes in the Vostok Ice Core Data is provable-false by the well-established Milankovitch THEORY. Despite his fame, fortune, and Nobel Prize, you can’t believe anything he says about “Climate Change”.

Anyone telling you otherwise has never looked at the DATA; they are either mistaken or lying.

When I gave my Physics Seminar at I.U. almost 4 years ago, I said that I hope I would live long enough to see the Global Warming specious narrative dispelled. And perhaps I may:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/era-unquestioned-and-unchallenged-climate-change-claims-over (Authored by Alex Newman via The Epoch Times)

1. You know you must be getting old when, rather than doing new calculations, you are dredging up and recycling 4 year old calculations !

2. I’ll have to remove all my Phunny Sarcasms; that will be hard. I’d like to reach a larger audience than my 4 paid subscribers and 1000 free subscribers, of which only about 40% open my E-Mails.

3. Hey, and you know what’s Phunny? Any physics professor, or grad student, or undergrad, or anyone who knows how to use a Spreadsheet, could reproduce all these results in a just a few days using Open Source software on a few hundred dollar laptop. If they had the DATA! That’s a pretty big IF. Today we don’t do DATA; we do Stories and Narratives.

4. I think this is a beautiful plot, suitable for framing! Who says I’m not an artist? Anyone want to buy an NFT of this for a million dollars? First person who sends me a million dollars gets it!