High Correlation between Vax Rate and Death Rate in the U.S. using CDC Data

Same Correlation as seen in U.K. Data

Abstract

Up to 87% of the variation in the Death Rate in the U.S. can be accounted for by variations in the Vax Rate, with the Death Rate delayed by about 6¹ weeks with respect to the Vax Rate. This is a both clear and robust signal in the Data.

Introduction

• On 03 Sept 2022 I published a Substack article showing that over 75% of the variation in the Death Rate in the U.S. can be accounted for by variations in the Vax Rate, with the Death Rate delayed by about 6 weeks with respect to the Vax Rate.

• On 04 Dec 2022 I published another Substack article showing the same high correlation between Death and Vax rates in the U.K., and again showing that the Correlation was maximized with about a 6-week delay of the Death Rate Variations with respect to the Vax Rate Variations.

• In this Substack article, I used the latest U.S. CDC Data² for Mortality Rate and Vax Rate and redid my analysis for correlations between the Mortality Rate and Vaccination Rate in the U.S. and find up to 87% of the Variation in the Mortality Rate can be accounted for by Variations in the Vaccination Rate.

Description of Correlation Analysis

I calculated the Correlation Function and R-Squared Function between the Mortality and Vaccination Rates in the U.S. using published CDC Data for a full 52 week period beginning 01 July 2021. I then repeated this same 52-week analysis beginning 4, 8, 12, and 16 weeks later (e.g., on 7/29, 8/26, 9/23 and 10/21 2022). These analyses are shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1. 52-Week Correlation-Rate-Squared (R-Squared Value) between the Vax and Mortality Rates in the U.S. as a function of delay of the Mortality Rate with respect to the Vaccination Rate in weeks. The analysis was repeated for 5 different 52-week time periods.

Conclusions

This signal is also found in the U.K. using completely independent data. So it seems we have two independent Data Sets showing “glitches” in the Data similarly separated by about 6 weeks. I’d like to get my hands on Vaccination and All-Cause Mortality Rates from at least 2 other independent jurisdictions to see if I see that same signal in these Data. That would be an amazing coincidence !

Last edited: 25 Dec 2022.

1. In previous versions of this Post I said 7 weeks — in my program I started numbering from 1 to 18 rather than (correctly) from 0 to 17 ! Yep, I do make little silly mistakes! I’ve done a few other edits, e.g. changing Morality to Mortality in the Title of Fig. 1 as was pointed out to me in a Comment below by Momo of Rome2Ruins.Substack.com.

2. U.S. Mortality Data: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html — Downloaded 18 Dec 2022.

U.S. Vaccination Data: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends — Downloaded 18 Dec 2022.