Statistics and Data

You often don't need Statistics, but you always need DATA.

Usually if there is a significant signal in the DATA, you can just see it with your eyes. You don’t need some fancy statistical analysis. Below in italics I excerpt from a recent Cleveland Clinic Preprint:

The risk of COVID-19 also varied by the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses previously received. The higher the number of vaccines previously received, the higher the risk of contracting COVID-19 (Figure 2).

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Figure 2.

Simon-Makuch plot comparing the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 for subjects stratified by the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses previously received. Day zero was 12 September 2022, the day the bivalent vaccine began to be offered to employees. Point estimates and 95% confidence intervals are jittered along the x-axis to improve visibility.

And this is the conclusion that the authors wrote to their paper:

In conclusion, this study found an overall modest protective effect of the bivalent vaccine booster against COVID-19, among working-aged adults. The effect of multiple COVID-19 vaccine doses on future risk of COVID-19 needs further study.

Huh ??? !!!! The authors probably needed to write that in order to get their paper past the Pfizer/CDC reviewers and fact-checkers.

This would be my conclusion (and perhaps yours):

• There is a clear signal that the more one is vaccinated, the higher the probability of contracting CoVid.

• And, one might conjecture, if people’s immune systems have been so damaged by the vaccine, such that they have a higher probability of catching CoVid, something they have supposedly been vaccinated against, just imagine how much higher is their probability of contracting diseases other than CoVid? That is a study I’d like to see.

• AND, really, who even cares about CoVid, something almost everyone survives? The really interesting study would be All-Cause-Mortality vs. number of Vax’s. (Spoiler alert, we already have those DATA: U.K. ONS data show higher All-Cause-Mortality in the Vax’d compared to the Un-Vax’d regardless of age). And too see this paper by Christof Huhbander and Matthias Reitzner.¹

Now, people often fault me as being unqualified to look at CoVid Data because I’m not an Epidemiologist who maybe has a small bit of training in calculus and maybe one simple course in statistics. I’m only a mere physicist with a half century of experience in Q.E.D. (Quantum Electro Dynamics); relativistic quantum mechanics (a statistical thing); statistical thermodynamics; using data and calculations correctly to design: relativistic particle accelerators, particle beam diagnostic systems, large scale photovoltaic manufacturing systems, photovoltaic diagnostic systems; not to mention the design of a data analysis system to comb through gigabytes of data to pinpoint sources of variation in a photovoltaic manufacturing process with thousands of variables.

Now, it seems I would need a lot more training in Statistics and Epidemiology to somehow come to the conclusion that the authors of this preprint came to!

And, just to repeat, I am NOT a trained Epidemiologist, so you can disregard everything that I say. The CDC says that the Vaxes are safe and effective. And so, be like the small minority who are continuing to Vax.²

This new “Follow-the-Science” Religion, where only an MDeity Epidemiologist on the Mainstream Media can look at CoVid data and tell you what is means, is just like the old Catholic Religion, where only a priest could read and interpret the Bible at the pulpit (and hear your confession).

1. Recent E-Mail from Reitzner:

Dear Tim Ellison,

thanks for your mail and bringing your work to our attention. The correlation between vaccinations and mortality is striking, also in Germany. Yet there has (clearly) been a huge unpleasant discussion about that ...

In our work, we just concentrate on the correct method to compute the expected mortality, comparing this to the observed one and computing the mathematical sound excess mortality. And this is still increasing, even in December 2022 (more than 25%!). This shows that there must be some long-reaching effect of the vaccination and the COVID-19 measures.

Best wishes,
Matthias Reitzner

2. I continually get E-Mails from Medicare urging me to get the latest Vax for FREE ! I’ve never been Vax’d, delete these E-Mails, and think about all the money we the tax payers are paying to put into the pockets of Pfizer executives.