Figure 2 is a Gaussian, or Normal distribution which describes the probability of something occurring when there is Randomness. The deviation will be less than:
+/- 1 Standard Deviation 68% of the time;
+/- 2 Standard Deviations 95% of the time; and
+/- 3 Standard Deviations 99.7% of the time.
In the past, we have seen changes in temperature over a century of over 3 Standard Deviations.
The change in Temperature over the last century has been relatively small -- only 0.14 Standard Deviations. There is only an 11% chance is seeing such a SMALL deviation in temperature over a century. So, the Earth's temperature, presently, is remarkably stable; 89% of the time we would expect to see larger changes in the Earth's temperature.
Wow, Dr. T, really like this post. Few things I have read are this short and this convincing! Call me a denier but the conclusion is most inconvenient. I look at your Lily data and I see a Beta distribution. Was unable to paste in a picture but upon going here:
I had limited success getting a shape that fit as well as I had hoped. Perhaps you tried already?
I am a big Latex user and have wondered about using substack as an author. May I conclude from your comment that is a no go, that to use substack you must use its editor which is equation unfriendly? Thanks
Is that a full blooded wolf? Looks more like a shepherd mix to me.
As for the whole climate thing, good article. This is going to be the next psyop, so I just created a bookmark folder and this is the first article in it.
Understanding Figure 2.
Figure 2 is a Gaussian, or Normal distribution which describes the probability of something occurring when there is Randomness. The deviation will be less than:
+/- 1 Standard Deviation 68% of the time;
+/- 2 Standard Deviations 95% of the time; and
+/- 3 Standard Deviations 99.7% of the time.
In the past, we have seen changes in temperature over a century of over 3 Standard Deviations.
The change in Temperature over the last century has been relatively small -- only 0.14 Standard Deviations. There is only an 11% chance is seeing such a SMALL deviation in temperature over a century. So, the Earth's temperature, presently, is remarkably stable; 89% of the time we would expect to see larger changes in the Earth's temperature.
Wow, Dr. T, really like this post. Few things I have read are this short and this convincing! Call me a denier but the conclusion is most inconvenient. I look at your Lily data and I see a Beta distribution. Was unable to paste in a picture but upon going here:
https://www.medcalc.org/manual/beta-distribution-functions.php
I had limited success getting a shape that fit as well as I had hoped. Perhaps you tried already?
I am a big Latex user and have wondered about using substack as an author. May I conclude from your comment that is a no go, that to use substack you must use its editor which is equation unfriendly? Thanks
Absolutely gorgeous
Is that a full blooded wolf? Looks more like a shepherd mix to me.
As for the whole climate thing, good article. This is going to be the next psyop, so I just created a bookmark folder and this is the first article in it.