Figure 2 is a Gaussian, or Normal distribution which describes the probability of something occurring when there is Randomness. The deviation will be less than:
+/- 1 Standard Deviation 68% of the time;
+/- 2 Standard Deviations 95% of the time; and
+/- 3 Standard Deviations 99.7% of the time.
In the past, we have seen changes in temperature over a century of over 3 Standard Deviations.
The change in Temperature over the last century has been relatively small -- only 0.14 Standard Deviations. There is only an 11% chance is seeing such a SMALL deviation in temperature over a century. So, the Earth's temperature, presently, is remarkably stable; 89% of the time we would expect to see larger changes in the Earth's temperature.
Wow, Dr. T, really like this post. Few things I have read are this short and this convincing! Call me a denier but the conclusion is most inconvenient. I look at your Lily data and I see a Beta distribution. Was unable to paste in a picture but upon going here:
I had limited success getting a shape that fit as well as I had hoped. Perhaps you tried already?
I am a big Latex user and have wondered about using substack as an author. May I conclude from your comment that is a no go, that to use substack you must use its editor which is equation unfriendly? Thanks
I'll admit, I'm unfamiliar with the "Beta Distribution", but I'm going to look at it.
Once my experiment had not be destroyed halfway through by that gross creature, my best buddy, Nashoba, I saw it certainly wasn't perfectly described by a Guassian. It's a non-symmetrical Gaussian with a tail. I thought, "Oh, that's a Poisson Distribution", but too many flowers (but I could perhaps make this work because I also counted the number of flowers in each stem, they come in with peaks in the Histogram at 12 and 20 per major stem -- perhaps if I reduced, by normalizing to the number per stem, I could fit it to a Poisson). Or, I thought, I could create a function that is the product of a Guassian and a decreasing exponential.
But, I really wasn't looking the perfect function to describe these measurements.
I was just writing a story, with these Measurements being a "hook" into my Post about how there is no DATA anymore, just numbers and stories, and then I thought I could use that as a hook into my Post about the almost perfect Gaussian Distribution describing the temperature changes of the Earth using the Vostok Ice Core DATA (i.e., pure self promotion, and I just CAN'T stop beating that AGW dead horse.
I remember people using Latex when I worked at the I.U. Cyclotron (mid 80's to early 90's. But, even at that time, you could get "What you type is what you see" on Word Perfect. And it seemed very complicated to me (like trying to do a document in HTML or whatever).
Substack is GREAT for very easily publishing things. See:
I actually love Substack -- you can just start using it and publish.
So, why was I complaining? You know the old saying, "As my Pappy told me, it may be much better to light a candle than to curse the Darkness, but it sure is more fun to curse the Darkness". Some of us just look for things to complain about ! Woe is me ! Look at how I suffer !
There are a few personality traits that I've observed in the wolfdogs compared to dogs (had dogs all my life, and then two wolf dogs). It's not what you think -- you'd be surprised !
Is that a full blooded wolf? Looks more like a shepherd mix to me.
As for the whole climate thing, good article. This is going to be the next psyop, so I just created a bookmark folder and this is the first article in it.
Understanding Figure 2.
Figure 2 is a Gaussian, or Normal distribution which describes the probability of something occurring when there is Randomness. The deviation will be less than:
+/- 1 Standard Deviation 68% of the time;
+/- 2 Standard Deviations 95% of the time; and
+/- 3 Standard Deviations 99.7% of the time.
In the past, we have seen changes in temperature over a century of over 3 Standard Deviations.
The change in Temperature over the last century has been relatively small -- only 0.14 Standard Deviations. There is only an 11% chance is seeing such a SMALL deviation in temperature over a century. So, the Earth's temperature, presently, is remarkably stable; 89% of the time we would expect to see larger changes in the Earth's temperature.
Wow, Dr. T, really like this post. Few things I have read are this short and this convincing! Call me a denier but the conclusion is most inconvenient. I look at your Lily data and I see a Beta distribution. Was unable to paste in a picture but upon going here:
https://www.medcalc.org/manual/beta-distribution-functions.php
I had limited success getting a shape that fit as well as I had hoped. Perhaps you tried already?
I am a big Latex user and have wondered about using substack as an author. May I conclude from your comment that is a no go, that to use substack you must use its editor which is equation unfriendly? Thanks
Thanks for this nice comment !
I'll admit, I'm unfamiliar with the "Beta Distribution", but I'm going to look at it.
Once my experiment had not be destroyed halfway through by that gross creature, my best buddy, Nashoba, I saw it certainly wasn't perfectly described by a Guassian. It's a non-symmetrical Gaussian with a tail. I thought, "Oh, that's a Poisson Distribution", but too many flowers (but I could perhaps make this work because I also counted the number of flowers in each stem, they come in with peaks in the Histogram at 12 and 20 per major stem -- perhaps if I reduced, by normalizing to the number per stem, I could fit it to a Poisson). Or, I thought, I could create a function that is the product of a Guassian and a decreasing exponential.
But, I really wasn't looking the perfect function to describe these measurements.
I was just writing a story, with these Measurements being a "hook" into my Post about how there is no DATA anymore, just numbers and stories, and then I thought I could use that as a hook into my Post about the almost perfect Gaussian Distribution describing the temperature changes of the Earth using the Vostok Ice Core DATA (i.e., pure self promotion, and I just CAN'T stop beating that AGW dead horse.
I remember people using Latex when I worked at the I.U. Cyclotron (mid 80's to early 90's. But, even at that time, you could get "What you type is what you see" on Word Perfect. And it seemed very complicated to me (like trying to do a document in HTML or whatever).
Substack is GREAT for very easily publishing things. See:
https://timellison.substack.com/p/why-am-i-using-substack-
and
https://timellison.substack.com/p/why-do-i-post-on-substack-2
I actually love Substack -- you can just start using it and publish.
So, why was I complaining? You know the old saying, "As my Pappy told me, it may be much better to light a candle than to curse the Darkness, but it sure is more fun to curse the Darkness". Some of us just look for things to complain about ! Woe is me ! Look at how I suffer !
Absolutely gorgeous
Oh, heck.
I know there is no picture of me but rather one of my buddy.
I am partial to large dogs, especially german shepherds. He looks quite amazing & I couldn't imagine what kind of personality he would even have.
He was a sweetie pie --
There are a few personality traits that I've observed in the wolfdogs compared to dogs (had dogs all my life, and then two wolf dogs). It's not what you think -- you'd be surprised !
Talk about them here:
https://timellison.substack.com/p/on-wolves-and-dogs-i
https://timellison.substack.com/p/dogs-and-wolves-ii
If the adage is true that owners and their pets look alike well I have no doubt the same applies to you as well 😄
Is that a full blooded wolf? Looks more like a shepherd mix to me.
As for the whole climate thing, good article. This is going to be the next psyop, so I just created a bookmark folder and this is the first article in it.
87% --
But, that is a very long story we could talk about !
The Climate Thing has been a Psyop for a very long time now !